Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of accident management strategies involving multiple decisions

Moosung Jae, Antony D. Milici, William E. Kastenberg

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

8 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

A framework for assessing severe accident management strategies is presented using a new analytical tool, namely, influence diagrams. This framework includes multiple and sequential decisions, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty propagation, and is applied to a proposed set of strategies for a pressurized water reactor station blackout sequence. The influence diagram associated with these strategies is constructed and evaluated. Each decision variable, represented by a node in the influence diagram, has an uncertainty distribution associated with it. Using the mean value of these distributions, a best estimate assessment is performed, and each strategy is ranked with respect to the conditional frequency of early containment failure. The sensitivity of the variance of the output distribution, given the preferred decision alternative, to the uncertainty of the input variables is investigated.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)13-35
Number of pages23
JournalNuclear Technology
Volume104
Issue number1
StatePublished - 1993 Oct 1

Fingerprint

Uncertainty analysis
sensitivity analysis
accidents
Sensitivity analysis
Accidents
diagrams
Pressurized water reactors
blackout
pressurized water reactors
containment
stations
propagation
Uncertainty
output
sensitivity
estimates

Cite this

Jae, Moosung ; Milici, Antony D. ; Kastenberg, William E. / Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of accident management strategies involving multiple decisions. In: Nuclear Technology. 1993 ; Vol. 104, No. 1. pp. 13-35.
@article{99d9878e8e95454e977656942e6eb242,
title = "Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of accident management strategies involving multiple decisions",
abstract = "A framework for assessing severe accident management strategies is presented using a new analytical tool, namely, influence diagrams. This framework includes multiple and sequential decisions, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty propagation, and is applied to a proposed set of strategies for a pressurized water reactor station blackout sequence. The influence diagram associated with these strategies is constructed and evaluated. Each decision variable, represented by a node in the influence diagram, has an uncertainty distribution associated with it. Using the mean value of these distributions, a best estimate assessment is performed, and each strategy is ranked with respect to the conditional frequency of early containment failure. The sensitivity of the variance of the output distribution, given the preferred decision alternative, to the uncertainty of the input variables is investigated.",
author = "Moosung Jae and Milici, {Antony D.} and Kastenberg, {William E.}",
year = "1993",
month = "10",
day = "1",
language = "English",
volume = "104",
pages = "13--35",
journal = "Nuclear Technology",
issn = "0029-5450",
number = "1",

}

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of accident management strategies involving multiple decisions. / Jae, Moosung; Milici, Antony D.; Kastenberg, William E.

In: Nuclear Technology, Vol. 104, No. 1, 01.10.1993, p. 13-35.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of accident management strategies involving multiple decisions

AU - Jae, Moosung

AU - Milici, Antony D.

AU - Kastenberg, William E.

PY - 1993/10/1

Y1 - 1993/10/1

N2 - A framework for assessing severe accident management strategies is presented using a new analytical tool, namely, influence diagrams. This framework includes multiple and sequential decisions, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty propagation, and is applied to a proposed set of strategies for a pressurized water reactor station blackout sequence. The influence diagram associated with these strategies is constructed and evaluated. Each decision variable, represented by a node in the influence diagram, has an uncertainty distribution associated with it. Using the mean value of these distributions, a best estimate assessment is performed, and each strategy is ranked with respect to the conditional frequency of early containment failure. The sensitivity of the variance of the output distribution, given the preferred decision alternative, to the uncertainty of the input variables is investigated.

AB - A framework for assessing severe accident management strategies is presented using a new analytical tool, namely, influence diagrams. This framework includes multiple and sequential decisions, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty propagation, and is applied to a proposed set of strategies for a pressurized water reactor station blackout sequence. The influence diagram associated with these strategies is constructed and evaluated. Each decision variable, represented by a node in the influence diagram, has an uncertainty distribution associated with it. Using the mean value of these distributions, a best estimate assessment is performed, and each strategy is ranked with respect to the conditional frequency of early containment failure. The sensitivity of the variance of the output distribution, given the preferred decision alternative, to the uncertainty of the input variables is investigated.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0027676977&partnerID=8YFLogxK

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:0027676977

VL - 104

SP - 13

EP - 35

JO - Nuclear Technology

JF - Nuclear Technology

SN - 0029-5450

IS - 1

ER -