A structured scenario approach to multi-screen ecosystem forecasting in Korean communications market

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

8 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Ecosystem forecasting is a challenge for any forecaster since it has a large number of variables, which vary dynamically, tightly coupled with environmental factors under a complex ecosystem architecture. The ecosystem behaves like a complex system as a whole where one variable may serve as a hierarchical pillar to other variables, while others interact with each other in non-linear forms of substitution, complementarity, synergy and externalities. This paper is targeted to develop a profound structured approach to the ecosystem forecasting which combines scenario planning with technological forecasting. Three key planning principles are derived and incorporated into the structured ecosystem forecasting methodology. To demonstrate its effectiveness, the Korean multi-screen service market is analyzed and prospected toward the year 2016. Policy and strategic implications from the structured ecosystem forecasting are also discussed to validate the practicality of the suggested methodology.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-20
Number of pages20
JournalTechnological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume94
DOIs
StatePublished - 2015 May 1

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Ecosystems
Ecosystem
Communication
Technological forecasting
Planning
Scenarios
Large scale systems
Substitution reactions
Methodology

Keywords

  • Data traffic
  • ICT ecosystem
  • Scenarios
  • Structural change
  • Telecommunications forecasting

Cite this

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A structured scenario approach to multi-screen ecosystem forecasting in Korean communications market. / Chang, Suk-Gwon.

In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 94, 01.05.2015, p. 1-20.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

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